Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.66 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.46 entry / -1.56 rolling
Half-life 0.7h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.79
Pair volatility: 36.24%
Backtest: 79.31% win · Sharpe 3.67 · 3.52% return · 1.01% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: AVNT / SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.56 (Snapshot ~1.3h old)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -1.03 (Snapshot ~4.3h old)
- Correlation: 0.66 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 31.7% AVNT / 68.3% SUPER
Setup Context:
- Statistical Alignment: The negative z-score (-1.56 on 1h) indicates AVNT is currently statistically "cheap" relative to SUPER. Your stated direction (Long AVNT / Short SUPER) aligns with this mean-reversion signal.
- Sentiment/News: Both assets carry bearish sentiment, which complicates the trade. AVNT faces a $2.43M token unlock in 7 days, creating a supply overhang. SUPER is experiencing a technical breakdown with thin social engagement.
- Trade Note: This is a relative-value play rather than a directional conviction trade. You are betting that SUPER will underperform AVNT (or that AVNT will hold up better) despite the upcoming AVNT unlock. Given the bearish sentiment on both, monitor the spread closely for divergence rather than expecting a strong recovery in either leg.
AVNT
SUPER