Z-score (-1.23) is too close to the mean to be considered for a trade.
long spread · 9× leverage · regime IDLE (high confidence)
Signal
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Rolling z-score | -1.23 |
| Z-score | -1.53 at entry |
| Correlation | 0.69 · cointegrated |
| Half-life | 1.2h |
| Hurst | 0.91 |
| Hedge ratio | 0.48 · long-term beta 0.99 |
| Beta stability | stable · current 0.48 · range -0.05–1.49 · 8 sign changes |
| Lead–lag peak corr | 0.69 |
| Pair volatility | 29.02% |
| Momentum | z-velocity +0.54 · acceleration +1.61 · vol ratio 0.25 |
Backtest
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Win rate | 89.66% — 26W / 3L over 29 trades |
| Sharpe | 5.01 |
| Total return | +3.35% |
| Max drawdown | 1.18% |
- Pair: Long MOODENG / Short TURBO
- Roll Z-Score: -1.81 (4h); -1.23 (1h); -0.95 (1d)
- Correlation: 0.65 (4h); 0.69 (1h); 0.62 (1d)
- Cointegration: False on 4h, true on 1h and 1d
- Half-life: 8h (4h); 29h (1h); 4h (1d)
- Hurst: 0.90 (4h), indicating weak mean-reversion quality
- 4h sizing weights: ~49.3% MOODENG / 50.7% TURBO
- Venue: Both listed on Hyperliquid core; USDC collateral; max leverage 3x each
- Sentiment:
- MOODENG: Bearish, with some whale-accumulation offset
- TURBO: Bearish; negative funding and heavy shorts offer squeeze risk
- No specific recent token-news results returned
- Remark: The negative z-score supports the stated long-MOODENG/short-TURBO direction, but the setup is low-to-moderate conviction: 4h cointegration is absent, Hurst is high, and both assets have bearish sentiment. TURBO’s crowded shorts create meaningful squeeze risk against the short leg.
MOODENG
TURBO