Long ZK / Short SUPER · 1h pair

Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.

Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.62 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.64 entry / 2.00 rolling
Half-life 1.1h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.83
Pair volatility: 36.21%

Backtest: 80.65% win · Sharpe 5.22 · 3.35% return · 0.89% max drawdown

Pair Analysis: Long ZK / Short SUPER

This setup aligns with both statistical mean-reversion signals and fundamental sentiment divergence.

• Statistical Status:

  • Roll Z-Score: 1.73 (4h) to 2.00 (1h). The pair is statistically extended, indicating SUPER is currently "rich" relative to ZK.
  • Correlation: 0.64 (4h). Moderate correlation suggests the pair is suitable for mean-reversion, though not perfectly locked.
  • Hedge Weights (4h): 25.7% ZK / 74.3% SUPER.
  • Note: The 1h z-score is ~1.3h old; verify current price action as the pair has shown volatility.

• Sentiment & Fundamental Context:

  • ZK (Bearish): Facing structural headwinds from monthly token unlocks, which are creating a persistent supply overhang and suppressing price action.
  • SUPER (Bullish): Benefiting from strong institutional tailwinds, including Invesco's management of the USTB fund and active utility as collateral on Solana, which are driving demand.

• Trade Remark:

  • This is a high-conviction setup where the statistical "richness" of SUPER aligns with the fundamental divergence between the two assets. You are effectively long the asset with institutional momentum (SUPER) and short the asset facing supply-side pressure (ZK). The trade is currently quant-optimal; ensure sizing follows the 4h hedge weights (approx. 1:3 ratio) to account for the volatility differential.