Pair is reverting towards the mean, but either the movement is decelerating or volatility is elevated.
Regime: WEAK_REVERSION (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.72 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.87 entry / -2.18 rolling
Half-life 3.0h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 1.59
Pair volatility: 31.37%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 0.67 · 0.44% return · 1.59% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: BB / POLYX
- Roll Z-Score: -2.18 (1h) | -1.82 (4h) | -2.03 (1d)
- Correlation: 0.72 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio: 1.587 (1h) | 2.242 (4h)
- Sentiment: POLYX is currently bearish, with a 10.1% decline over the past week and weak volume following a failed upgrade catalyst. No specific sentiment data is available for BB.
Analysis:
The pair is currently in a strong mean-reversion setup. The negative z-scores across all timeframes indicate that the BB/POLYX spread is statistically "cheap" (BB is undervalued relative to POLYX). Your stated direction (Long BB / Short POLYX) is quant-optimal, as it aligns with buying the undervalued asset and selling the relatively rich one. The bearish sentiment on POLYX provides fundamental support for the short leg of this trade.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots (1h z-score is ~1.3h old). Verify recent price action before entry.
Asset Availability:
- BB: Listed on Hyperliquid (
xyz:BB), max 10x leverage.
- POLYX: Listed on Hyperliquid (
POLYX), max 3x leverage.
BB
POLYX