Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.74 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.53 entry / -1.68 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 1.06
Pair volatility: 35.39%
Backtest: 68.18% win · Sharpe 2.94 · 2.19% return · 1.18% max drawdown
### Pair Analysis: BERA / YGG
* **Direction:** Long BERA / Short YGG
* **Roll Z-Score:** -1.68 (1h) | -2.15 (4h) | -1.25 (1d)
* *Note: Negative z-scores indicate BERA is currently "cheap" relative to YGG on a mean-reversion basis.*
* **Correlation:** 0.74 (1h) | 0.73 (4h)
* **Hedge Weights (4h):** 49.9% BERA / 50.1% YGG
* **Half-Life:** 11h (4h timeframe)
### Sentiment & Technical Context
* **BERA (Bullish):** Sentiment is supported by strong investor confidence following recent $100M Series B funding. While near-term supply pressure from token releases remains a factor, the fundamental outlook is currently positive.
* **YGG (Bearish):** Sentiment is pressured by a strategic pivot away from its core GameFi model and declining community engagement. Persistent token unlock supply pressure continues to weigh on price action.
* **Setup:** The pair shows strong mean-reversion potential with a negative z-score across all timeframes, suggesting BERA is undervalued relative to YGG. The 4h z-score of -2.15 is particularly notable, indicating a significant divergence from the historical mean. The correlation remains robust (~0.73), supporting the validity of the pair relationship.
BERA
YGG