Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.74 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.53 entry / -1.68 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 1.06
Pair volatility: 35.39%
Backtest: 68.18% win · Sharpe 2.94 · 2.19% return · 1.18% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: BERA / YGG
- Direction: Long BERA / Short YGG
- Roll Z-Score: -1.68 (1h) | -2.15 (4h) | -1.25 (1d)
- Note: Negative z-scores indicate BERA is currently "cheap" relative to YGG on a mean-reversion basis.
- Correlation: 0.74 (1h) | 0.73 (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 49.9% BERA / 50.1% YGG
- Half-Life: 11h (4h timeframe)
Sentiment & Technical Context
- BERA (Bullish): Sentiment is supported by strong investor confidence following recent $100M Series B funding. While near-term supply pressure from token releases remains a factor, the fundamental outlook is currently positive.
- YGG (Bearish): Sentiment is pressured by a strategic pivot away from its core GameFi model and declining community engagement. Persistent token unlock supply pressure continues to weigh on price action.
- Setup: The pair shows strong mean-reversion potential with a negative z-score across all timeframes, suggesting BERA is undervalued relative to YGG. The 4h z-score of -2.15 is particularly notable, indicating a significant divergence from the historical mean. The correlation remains robust (~0.73), supporting the validity of the pair relationship.
BERA
YGG