Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.62 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.56 entry / -1.86 rolling
Half-life 1.4h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.97
Pair volatility: 26.53%
Backtest: 60.00% win · Sharpe 0.27 · 0.20% return · 1.66% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SUPER / Short XRP
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.86 (SUPER is statistically cheap relative to XRP)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -2.15
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -1.56
- Correlation: 0.62 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 65.0% SUPER / 35.0% XRP
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Statistical Alignment: The trade is well-aligned with the mean-reversion signal. Consistently negative z-scores across all timeframes (1h, 4h, 1d) indicate that SUPER is currently trading at a significant discount relative to its historical relationship with XRP.
- Sentiment Divergence: The setup benefits from a sentiment mismatch. XRP is currently facing bearish pressure with a breakdown of key support levels, while SUPER maintains a neutral stance. This divergence supports the "Long Cheap / Short Rich" thesis, as you are effectively betting on SUPER's relative strength or mean reversion while shorting a weaker, bearish-trending asset.
- Execution Note: Both assets are tradeable on Hyperliquid (USDC core). Note that SUPER has a lower max leverage (3x) compared to XRP (20x); ensure your position sizing accounts for the lower leverage cap on the SUPER leg.
SUPER
XRP