Long SOXL / Short JP225 · 1h pair

Pair is strongly reverting towards the mean with accelerating velocity and stable volatility.

short spread · regime STRONG_REVERSION (high confidence)

Signal

Backtest

• Pair: Long SOXL / Short JP225
• Roll Z-Score:
  • 1h: +1.85 — 1.5h-old snapshot
  • 4h: +2.24 — 7.5h-old snapshot
  • 1d: +0.72 — 1.5d-old snapshot
• Correlation: 0.64 (1h), 0.69 (4h), 0.89 (1d)
• Cointegration: True on 1h; false on 4h and 1d
• Half-life: 13h (1h), 10h (4h), 17h (1d)
• Hurst: 0.85 (1h), 0.87 (4h), 0.50 (1d)
• Technical read: Short-term spread dislocation is notable, but the lack of 4h/1d cointegration and high short-term Hurst values weaken mean-reversion confidence.
• Direction note: The stated direction is preserved. The quantitative z-score heuristic also lists Long SOXL / Short JP225, but the stats flag the user direction as against that heuristic; do not treat this as a clean confirmation.
• Sizing reference: 4h hedge weights — SOXL 12.9%, JP225 87.1%.
• Sentiment/news: No sentiment data or third-party recent-news results available for either asset.
• Venue: Both listed on Hyperliquid’s xyz venue; SOXL max leverage 10x, JP225 max leverage 20x.
• Price levels: Live prices and ratio-based TP/SL could not be verified from the available price source.
• Remark: Moderate-to-low conviction: the 1h/4h z-score supports a possible relative-value setup, but unstable medium-term cointegration and absent news/sentiment confirmation make this a tactical, closely monitored trade rather than a robust swing pair.