Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.72 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.61 entry / -2.61 rolling
Half-life 1.5h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 0.99
Pair volatility: 27.18%
Backtest: 68.18% win · Sharpe 1.47 · 1.12% return · 1.71% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SAND / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -2.61 (SAND is statistically "cheap" relative to SUPER)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -2.29
- Correlation: 0.72 (1h)
- Half-Life: 37h (1h) / 11h (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 42.5% SAND / 57.5% SUPER
Analysis & Sentiment Note:
- Statistical Setup: The pair is showing a strong mean-reversion signal (Z-score < -2.0 on both 1h and 4h timeframes), suggesting the spread has deviated significantly from its historical mean. The quant-optimal direction (Long SAND / Short SUPER) aligns with your stated trade.
- Sentiment Divergence: There is a clear conflict between the statistical signal and current market sentiment. SAND is currently facing bearish pressure and community fatigue, while SUPER is benefiting from bullish momentum and whale accumulation.
- Risk: This trade is a "mean-reversion vs. momentum" setup. While the statistical deviation is deep, the bearish sentiment on SAND and bullish momentum on SUPER could cause the spread to widen further before it reverts. Ensure your stop-loss accounts for the possibility of this trend continuing against the mean-reversion signal.
SAND
SUPER