Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.68 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.21 entry / 2.06 rolling
Half-life 0.7h · Hurst 0.88 · Hedge ratio 3.28
Pair volatility: 34.61%
Backtest: 60.00% win · Sharpe 4.22 · 1.18% return · 0.65% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long QCOM / Short CRDO
This pair setup is currently showing significant divergence across timeframes, with the 1h z-score suggesting the spread is extended while longer-term metrics are less conclusive.
Statistical Snapshot
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 2.06 (CRDO is statistically "rich" relative to QCOM; this aligns with your Long QCOM / Short CRDO direction).
- 4h Roll Z-Score: 0.68
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -0.91
- Correlation: 0.68 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 2.572 (CRDO units per QCOM unit)
Analysis Notes
- Mean Reversion Signal: The 1h z-score of 2.06 indicates a strong short-term mean reversion opportunity, suggesting CRDO has outperformed QCOM recently and may be due for a pullback relative to the pair.
- Timeframe Divergence: There is a material conflict between the 1h and 1d signals. The 1h timeframe supports your directional intent, but the 1d z-score (-0.91) suggests the pair may be approaching the opposite extreme on a longer horizon.
- Execution Note: QCOM trades on the
xyz deployer (USDC collateral) and CRDO trades on the para deployer (USDC collateral). Ensure you have sufficient USDC in your account to cover both legs, as these are separate collateral pools.
- Sentiment: No specific sentiment data is currently available for these assets. Monitor sector-specific news (semiconductors/connectivity) as these often drive correlated moves that can override mean-reversion signals.
QCOM
CRDO