Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.72 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.23 entry / -2.76 rolling
Half-life 2.2h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 0.74
Pair volatility: 37.64%
Backtest: 81.25% win · Sharpe 5.42 · 4.46% return · 1.28% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STRK / Short ZK
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -2.76 (STRK is statistically cheap relative to ZK)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.92
- Correlation: 0.72 (1h)
- Half-Life: 53h (1h) / 14h (4h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 0.73 (Long 0.73 STRK / Short 1.0 ZK)
Analysis & Sentiment
- Technical Setup: The pair is currently mean-reverting, with STRK trading at a significant discount to ZK on a 1h basis (z-score -2.76). The trade direction (Long STRK / Short ZK) is aligned with the quant-optimal direction across the 1h and 4h timeframes.
- Sentiment Context: Both assets face structural headwinds. STRK is pressured by ongoing monthly unlocks through 2027, while ZK faces immediate supply overhang from upcoming unlocks starting July 17.
- Note: The 1h z-score is ~1.3h old; verify recent price action to ensure the divergence hasn't already closed. The 4h timeframe provides a more stable view for sizing (hedge weight ~0.73).
STRK
ZK