Idea 7 of 9 from @0xGeeGee's latest thesis thread. Strategy's mNAV is back at 1.16x, and he's starting to short the premium again.
Thesis
- 1.16x is high for recent months but low by historical standards. His view is that the digital asset treasury (DAT) narrative is finished for good. That makes historical mNAV averages the wrong benchmark, and the premium should settle much lower.
- He's moderately bullish BTC, which makes an outright MSTR short awkward. Shorting the stock against a BTC long isolates the premium.
Catalyst: MSCI
On Oct 15, MSCI adopted rules that make companies that mostly hold investments ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes. MSCI's simulation on May 2026 data flagged Strategy for removal. The list of affected companies is due Nov 11, and the change takes effect at the close on Nov 30. He puts MSCI-tracking funds' MSTR holdings at about $1.9B. JPMorgan has estimated that exclusion would trigger about $2.8B of outflows.
Sizing note
Strategy's stock is leveraged to BTC through its debt and preferred shares, so an equal-weight pair doesn't neutralize BTC exactly. The pair gains extra in a BTC selloff and gives some back in a BTC rally.
What confirms / kills it
Confirms: Strategy is on the Nov 11 list; mNAV compresses toward 1.0x; preferred issuance (STRC/STRK) slows.
Kills: Strategy is left off the list or gets an exception; a BTC rally re-expands the premium. In his words: if he's wrong, he loses money, so what.
Thesis by @0xGeeGee. MSCI dates and figures checked against CoinDesk and MSCI's Oct 15 announcement.
MSTR
BTC