Pair is strongly reverting towards the mean with accelerating velocity and stable volatility.
Regime: STRONG_REVERSION (high confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.75 entry / -2.50 rolling
Half-life 1.3h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 1.08
Pair volatility: 38.29%
Backtest: 76.00% win · Sharpe 1.90 · 1.87% return · 1.78% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: ACE / ZEN
- Roll Z-Score: -2.50 (1h) / -2.36 (4h)
- Interpretation: The spread is statistically "cheap" (below the mean). The negative z-score indicates ACE is currently underperforming ZEN relative to their historical relationship, supporting a mean-reversion setup.
- Correlation: 0.60 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 48.3% ACE / 51.7% ZEN
- Sentiment:
- ACE: Bearish. Significant upcoming token unlocks (42.59% of market cap) are creating supply pressure.
- ZEN: Bearish. Community sentiment is skeptical, with low confidence in price recovery.
- Remark: This is a relative-value play. While both assets face bearish sentiment, the statistical divergence (z-score -2.50) suggests ACE has been oversold relative to ZEN. The trade effectively bets that ACE will outperform ZEN (or fall less) as the spread mean-reverts. Given the bearish sentiment on both, monitor for a breakdown in correlation, as a broad market sell-off could impact both legs simultaneously.
ACE
ZEN