Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.74 entry / 3.60 rolling
Half-life 4.6h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.20
Pair volatility: 30.56%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 1.15 · 0.81% return · 1.42% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: STX / MOODENG
- Roll Z-Score: 3.60 (1h), 2.14 (4h), 2.36 (1d)
- Note: Positive Z-score indicates MOODENG is statistically "rich" relative to STX. The 1h snapshot is ~1.3h old.
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 31.1% STX / 68.9% MOODENG
Remark
This setup presents a high-conviction statistical divergence against a strong sentiment conflict.
- Statistical Case (Mean Reversion): The Z-score of 3.60 suggests MOODENG is significantly overextended relative to STX. Statistically, this supports the Long STX / Short MOODENG trade as a mean-reversion play.
- Sentiment/Trend Risk: Sentiment analysis shows a clear divergence: STX is currently bearish with persistent selling pressure, while MOODENG is bullish, driven by speculative volume and whale inflows.
Conclusion: You are trading against the immediate trend. While the statistical "richness" of MOODENG is extreme, the bullish sentiment momentum suggests the spread could widen further before mean-reverting. Ensure your risk management accounts for the potential of a "blow-off top" in MOODENG that could temporarily invalidate the statistical edge.
STX
MOODENG