Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.90 entry / -1.61 rolling
Half-life 1.0h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.41
Pair volatility: 35.83%
Backtest: 83.87% win · Sharpe 5.08 · 4.71% return · 0.90% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: BOME / GOAT
Statistical Snapshot
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -1.61 (BOME is statistically cheap relative to GOAT)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -0.16 (Neutral)
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -1.23 (BOME is statistically cheap relative to GOAT)
- Correlation: 0.60 (1h) / 0.57 (4h) / 0.76 (1d)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
- Half-Life: 23h (1h) / 5h (4h)
Sentiment & Context
- BOME: Bearish. Recent price action characterized by speculative froth; volume has declined ~30%, suggesting waning interest and potential sector rotation headwinds.
- GOAT: Bullish. Sentiment supported by a unique supply structure, recent charity-focused airdrop activity, and successful fundraising.
Trade Note
- Divergence: The statistical mean-reversion signal (BOME is "cheap" relative to GOAT) is currently in direct conflict with the fundamental sentiment (BOME bearish vs. GOAT bullish).
- Risk: Entering a Long BOME / Short GOAT position relies on the statistical mean-reversion (z-score) playing out despite the bearish sentiment on the long leg (BOME) and bullish sentiment on the short leg (GOAT). This setup carries significant "trend-fighting" risk where the spread may continue to widen (BOME underperforming GOAT) rather than revert.
BOME
GOAT