Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.70 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.29 entry / -1.56 rolling
Half-life 1.4h · Hurst 0.86 · Hedge ratio 1.11
Pair volatility: 29.25%
Backtest: 62.50% win · Sharpe 1.03 · 0.68% return · 1.34% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long POLYX / Short XRP
- Roll Z-Score: -1.56 (1h) | -1.20 (4h) | -0.87 (1d)
- Interpretation: The negative z-score indicates that POLYX is currently "cheap" relative to XRP on a statistical basis. The 1h z-score of -1.56 suggests a meaningful deviation from the mean, supporting a mean-reversion trade (Long the cheap asset, Short the rich asset).
- Correlation: 0.70 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio: 1.105 (4h sizing recommended)
- Sentiment:
- POLYX: Bullish. Driven by Korean retail interest and the Polymesh v8 upgrade catalyst.
- XRP: Bullish. Driven by institutional demand and spot-ETF inflows, despite lower retail engagement.
- Trade Setup:
- Direction: Long POLYX / Short XRP (Aligned with quant-optimal direction).
- Note: The trade is a relative value play. While both assets have bullish sentiment, the statistical divergence (negative z-score) suggests POLYX is lagging XRP, providing a potential mean-reversion opportunity.
Venue Status:
- POLYX: Listed on Hyperliquid (Max 3x leverage).
- XRP: Listed on Hyperliquid (Max 20x leverage).
POLYX
XRP