Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.67 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.34 entry / -1.73 rolling
Half-life 1.6h · Hurst 0.87 · Hedge ratio 0.47
Pair volatility: 40.84%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 2.73 · 2.33% return · 1.00% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STRK / Short USUAL
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.73 (STRK is statistically cheap relative to USUAL)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -1.41
- Correlation: 0.67 (1h)
- Half-Life: 39h (1h timeframe)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 69.9% STRK / 30.1% USUAL
Sentiment & Technical Context
- Sentiment Divergence: This setup presents a classic "mean-reversion vs. momentum" conflict.
- STRK: Bearish sentiment driven by ongoing token unlocks and a lack of deflationary mechanisms.
- USUAL: Bullish sentiment supported by strong fundraising momentum and institutional backing.
- Statistical Edge: The negative Z-score (-1.73) indicates that STRK has significantly underperformed USUAL recently, suggesting a potential mean-reversion opportunity. However, the bearish fundamental outlook for STRK suggests this "cheapness" may be structural rather than temporary.
Trade Remark
The statistical setup is compelling for a mean-reversion trade (STRK is oversold relative to USUAL), but the fundamental sentiment is currently working against the long leg. If you enter, prioritize tight risk management, as the bearish unlock pressure on STRK could keep the spread depressed longer than the statistical half-life suggests. Ensure you are sizing based on the 4h hedge weights (approx. 70/30) to account for the volatility in these assets.
STRK
USUAL