Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.72 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.29 entry / 3.61 rolling
Half-life 1.0h · Hurst 0.86 · Hedge ratio 0.68
Pair volatility: 35.56%
Backtest: 70.83% win · Sharpe 1.45 · 1.05% return · 1.30% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long RENDER / Short ICP
This setup is currently aligned with the quant-optimal direction based on short-term mean reversion signals.
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 3.61 (Strongly positive; indicates ICP is statistically "rich" relative to RENDER in the short term).
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 3.10
- Correlation: 0.72 (1h)
- Half-Life: 23h (1h timeframe)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 39.5% RENDER / 60.5% ICP
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Quant Signal: The 1h and 4h z-scores are significantly elevated, suggesting that the spread between ICP and RENDER has stretched beyond historical norms, favoring a mean-reversion trade (Long RENDER / Short ICP).
- Sentiment Context: Both assets currently hold bullish sentiment, but the drivers differ. RENDER is benefiting from a structural supply-sink catalyst (RNP-023 governance), while ICP is seeing record network transaction volume. The trade effectively bets that RENDER's specific supply-side catalyst will outperform ICP's network-demand-driven growth in the near term.
- Note on Staleness: The 1h z-score snapshot is ~1.3 hours old. Given the high z-score, verify that recent price action hasn't already closed the gap before entering.
RENDER
ICP