Pair is reverting towards the mean, but either the movement is decelerating or volatility is elevated.
Regime: WEAK_REVERSION (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.77 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.36 entry / 1.70 rolling
Half-life 1.4h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.72
Pair volatility: 37.69%
Backtest: 68.42% win · Sharpe -1.29 · -0.64% return · 1.37% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long PNUT / Short ETH
- Roll Z-Score: 1.70 (1h) / 2.13 (4h) / 1.63 (1d)
- Interpretation: Positive z-scores indicate ETH is statistically "rich" relative to PNUT. Your chosen direction (Long PNUT / Short ETH) is aligned with the mean-reversion signal, betting on the spread narrowing as ETH potentially corrects or PNUT recovers.
- Correlation: 0.77 (1h) / 0.75 (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 50.8% PNUT / 49.2% ETH
- Sentiment Context:
- PNUT: Neutral. Market activity is currently stagnant with limited catalysts.
- ETH: Bullish. Supported by institutional inflows and strong network fundamentals, though currently facing technical resistance.
- Risk Note: While the statistical setup is aligned, you are betting against a fundamentally bullish asset (ETH) in favor of a neutral meme asset (PNUT). The high z-score suggests the spread is extended, but ensure your sizing accounts for the potential volatility of PNUT (max leverage 3x) versus the relative stability of ETH (max leverage 25x).
Disclaimer: Stats are snapshots; verify live prices before execution.
PNUT
ETH