Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.23 entry / 0.81 rolling
Half-life 1.9h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.52
Pair volatility: 29.43%
Backtest: 60.00% win · Sharpe -0.51 · -0.33% return · 1.68% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long YGG / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score: 1.20 (1h) / 0.11 (4h) / 2.28 (1d)
- Note: Positive z-scores indicate the spread (SUPER/YGG) is currently elevated, meaning SUPER is statistically "rich" relative to YGG.
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Half-Life: 47h (1h) / 18h (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 12.4% YGG / 87.6% SUPER
Setup Remark
This is a mean-reversion trade against the prevailing sentiment trend.
- Technical Divergence: The positive z-score (particularly the 1d reading of 2.28) suggests the spread has stretched significantly, creating a statistical opportunity to bet on a reversion where SUPER underperforms YGG.
- Sentiment Conflict: Sentiment is currently misaligned with the technical signal. YGG is facing bearish headwinds due to structural concerns in the gaming guild model, while SUPER is benefiting from bullish institutional narratives.
- Risk Profile: You are effectively fading the momentum of the stronger asset (SUPER) to capture a technical correction. Given the bearish sentiment on YGG, ensure tight risk management, as the "rich" spread could persist if the fundamental divergence between the two assets widens further.
Assets are tradeable on Hyperliquid (Core).
YGG
SUPER