Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.64 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.57 entry / -1.57 rolling
Half-life 4.3h · Hurst 0.88 · Hedge ratio 1.34
Pair volatility: 34.75%
Backtest: 77.78% win · Sharpe 2.94 · 3.03% return · 2.33% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long IOTA / Short STX
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.57
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -2.15
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -0.49
- Correlation: 0.64 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 36.6% IOTA / 63.4% STX
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Statistical Setup: The pair is currently showing a strong mean-reversion signal, with the 4h Roll Z-Score at -2.15, suggesting IOTA is significantly "cheap" relative to STX. The trade direction (Long IOTA / Short STX) is aligned with the quant-optimal direction across all timeframes.
- Sentiment: IOTA sentiment is mixed, driven by positive development momentum (TWIN expansion) offset by concerns over potential supply pressure from token unlocks. STX sentiment remains neutral, characterized by muted community engagement and a lack of recent catalysts.
- Note: Z-scores are snapshots; verify recent price action as the 4h data is ~4 hours old. The 4h timeframe is recommended for sizing due to higher stability compared to the 1h timeframe.
IOTA
STX