Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.55 entry / -1.63 rolling
Half-life 2.2h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.32
Pair volatility: 36.28%
Backtest: 72.73% win · Sharpe 1.74 · 1.22% return · 1.31% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long KAS / Short SUI
This setup is currently a high-conviction active signal (ranked #1 in live signals). The pair is statistically "cheap" (KAS relative to SUI), with the spread showing significant mean-reversion potential.
Statistical Data (1h Snapshot)
- Roll Z-Score: -1.63 (indicates KAS is significantly undervalued relative to SUI)
- Correlation: 0.60
- Cointegration: True
- Half-Life: 54h (~2.2 days)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 77.0% KAS / 23.0% SUI (use 4h for sizing)
Sentiment & Context
- KAS (Bearish Sentiment): Despite a 6.5% weekly decline, there is notable whale accumulation occurring. The market price is currently lagging behind fundamental network progress.
- SUI (Bearish Sentiment): Facing persistent supply-side pressure due to recent monthly unlocks (e.g., ~$18.8M), which is capping upside momentum despite institutional interest.
- Trade Rationale: You are effectively betting on a "relative strength" recovery for KAS against SUI. The negative z-score suggests the spread has stretched too far; the trade aims to capture the convergence as KAS potentially outperforms SUI (or SUI underperforms KAS) during a mean-reversion event.
Execution Notes
- Platform: Both assets are available on Hyperliquid (KAS max 3x, SUI max 10x).
- Sizing: Use 4h hedge weights (77% KAS / 23% SUI) for position construction.
- Risk: The 1h z-score is ~1.2h old; verify current price action to ensure the spread hasn't already begun to close aggressively.
KAS
SUI