Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.78 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.25 entry / 1.74 rolling
Half-life 4.6h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.60
Pair volatility: 32.15%
Backtest: 69.23% win · Sharpe 1.60 · 1.20% return · 1.23% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STRK / Short APT
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 1.74 (APT is statistically rich relative to STRK)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 1.58
- Correlation: 0.75 (4h)
- Half-Life: ~1.2 days (4h)
Analysis:
- Statistical Setup: The pair is currently extended, with a 4h Roll Z-Score of 1.58. This indicates that APT has outperformed STRK significantly relative to their historical relationship, making the Long STRK / Short APT trade a classic mean-reversion play.
- Sentiment Divergence: There is a significant conflict between the statistical signal and current sentiment. The market sentiment is Bearish on STRK (due to structural supply overhang) and Bullish on APT (driven by recent protocol upgrades).
- Risk Note: While the statistical setup favors a mean-reversion (Long STRK / Short APT), you are effectively "fighting the trend" by going long on an asset with bearish sentiment and short on an asset with bullish sentiment. The statistical edge is present, but the fundamental backdrop is currently working against this specific directional bias.
Note: STRK (max 5x) and APT (max 10x) are both available on Hyperliquid core.
STRK
APT