Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.71 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.40 entry / -1.51 rolling
Half-life 1.5h · Hurst 0.88 · Hedge ratio 1.37
Pair volatility: 27.87%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 1.38 · 0.89% return · 1.32% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long POLYX / Short XRP
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.51 (Snapshot age: 1.3h)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.36 (Snapshot age: 7.3h)
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -0.60 (Snapshot age: 2.0d)
- Correlation: 0.71 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 42.3% POLYX / 57.7% XRP
Sentiment & Technical Context
- POLYX (Bullish): Sentiment is driven by the Polymesh v8 upgrade, with notable spikes in Korean retail interest. This is a classic catalyst-driven setup where the asset is currently outperforming broader market sentiment.
- XRP (Bearish): Sentiment remains cautious; retail participation is at multi-year lows, and the asset is struggling to maintain momentum, remaining in a persistent downtrend.
- Setup Note: The negative z-scores across all timeframes indicate that POLYX is currently "cheap" relative to XRP, aligning well with your directional intent (Long POLYX / Short XRP). The 1h z-score of -1.51 suggests a statistically significant divergence, providing a strong mean-reversion entry point.
Venue Status
- POLYX: Listed on Hyperliquid (Core/USDC) — Max 3x leverage.
- XRP: Listed on Hyperliquid (Core/USDC) — Max 20x leverage.
POLYX
XRP