Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.66 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.31 entry / -1.55 rolling
Half-life 0.9h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.55
Pair volatility: 28.29%
Backtest: 68.00% win · Sharpe 2.99 · 2.62% return · 0.99% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long BIGTIME / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -1.55 (BIGTIME is statistically cheap relative to SUPER)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.35
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -1.26
- Correlation: 0.66 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 1.604 (Short 1.604 units of SUPER for every 1 unit of BIGTIME)
Remarks
- Technical Setup: The pair shows strong mean-reversion characteristics, with the 1h and 1d z-scores indicating that BIGTIME is currently undervalued relative to SUPER. The trade direction (Long BIGTIME / Short SUPER) is aligned with the quant-optimal direction.
- Sentiment & Fundamental Risk: While the statistical setup is favorable, the fundamental outlook for BIGTIME is concerning. Bearish sentiment is driven by recent exchange delistings and a significant supply unlock scheduled for September 25, 2026, which creates a structural overhang. SUPER remains in a neutral, "wait-and-see" state.
- Trade Conviction: The trade is technically sound as a mean-reversion play, but the fundamental headwinds for BIGTIME suggest that the "cheapness" may be persistent rather than temporary. Exercise caution; the statistical edge may be offset by the bearish fundamental pressure on the long leg.
BIGTIME
SUPER