Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.71 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -2.04 entry / -2.60 rolling
Half-life 1.4h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.93
Pair volatility: 27.93%
Backtest: 52.94% win · Sharpe 0.89 · 0.78% return · 2.22% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ACE / Short YGG
- Roll Z-Score: -2.60 (1h), -1.04 (4h), -1.79 (1d)
- Correlation: 0.71 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 1.181 (Sizing: 45.8% ACE / 54.2% YGG)
- Status: Mean-reversion signal active. The negative z-score indicates ACE is currently "cheap" relative to YGG, supporting the Long ACE / Short YGG direction.
Remark:
This setup is a relative-value play driven by statistical divergence rather than bullish conviction. Both assets face significant headwinds: ACE is pressured by substantial upcoming token unlocks, while YGG is struggling with a pivot in its core business model. Because both tokens are fundamentally bearish, this trade functions as a "relative weakness" hedge—you are betting that YGG will underperform ACE (or decline more sharply) rather than betting on an ACE recovery. The 1h z-score of -2.60 suggests a strong, potentially overextended divergence that may snap back, but monitor the 1.3h snapshot age closely, as high volatility in either asset could rapidly shift the spread.
ACE
YGG