Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.76 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.67 entry / 1.62 rolling
Half-life 3.6h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.52
Pair volatility: 29.31%
Backtest: 20.00% win · Sharpe -3.84 · -2.06% return · 2.12% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: SUI / ETH
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 1.62 (Snapshot: ~1.3h old)
- Correlation: 0.76
- Half-Life: 85h (~3.6d)
- Cointegration: True (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 47.3% SUI / 52.7% ETH
Sentiment & Context
- SUI: Neutral. Sentiment is balanced between concerns over upcoming token unlocks and positive ecosystem growth.
- ETH: Mixed. Institutional interest via spot ETF inflows is present, but price action remains range-bound with low conviction.
Remark
The pair is currently exhibiting a mean-reversion signal (Z-score 1.62), suggesting ETH is statistically "rich" relative to SUI. Your directional intent (Long SUI / Short ETH) aligns with this mean-reversion pressure. Note that the 1h Z-score is a snapshot; given the 85h half-life, this is a medium-term reversion play rather than a high-frequency scalp. The cointegration is statistically significant on the 1h timeframe, supporting the pair relationship, though the 4h/1d timeframes show weaker cointegration, suggesting the relationship may be more volatile over longer horizons.
SUI
ETH