Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.25 entry / -1.86 rolling
Half-life 1.5h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.80
Pair volatility: 27.86%
Backtest: 50.00% win · Sharpe 0.22 · 0.16% return · 2.22% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long ACE / Short YGG
This setup is a mean-reversion trade targeting the relative undervaluation of ACE against YGG.
Statistical Snapshot
- 1h Roll Z-Score: -1.86 (ACE is statistically cheap relative to YGG)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -1.29
- 1d Roll Z-Score: -0.99
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Cointegration: Confirmed (1h, 4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 53.6% ACE / 46.4% YGG
Sentiment & Context
- ACE (Bearish): Sentiment is weighed down by significant upcoming token unlocks (42.59% of market cap), creating structural supply pressure without clear offsetting demand mechanisms.
- YGG (Bearish): Sentiment is similarly negative, driven by a perceived failure in the core GameFi model, ongoing restructuring, and persistent monthly unlocks that continue to overhang the price.
- Setup Note: While both assets face bearish headwinds, the negative z-score indicates that ACE has underperformed YGG recently on a relative basis. This trade effectively bets that ACE's relative cheapness will revert, or that YGG's structural issues will lead to deeper relative weakness.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots; verify recent price action as the 1h z-score is ~1.3h old.
ACE
YGG