Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.60 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.81 entry / 4.19 rolling
Half-life 0.6h · Hurst 0.85 · Hedge ratio 0.91
Pair volatility: 36.51%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 4.07 · 3.81% return · 1.02% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long PNUT / Short GOAT
- Sentiment Divergence: This trade is a direct fade of current market sentiment. Internal sentiment analysis flags PNUT as Bearish (froth deflating, low momentum) and GOAT as Bullish (stronger community/investor interest). Entering a Long PNUT / Short GOAT position effectively bets against this prevailing trend.
- Statistical Snapshot:
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 4.19 (GOAT is statistically rich relative to PNUT on the 1h timeframe).
- 4h Roll Z-Score: 0.26 (Neutral).
- 1d Roll Z-Score: 0.23 (Neutral).
- Correlation: 0.60 (1h), 0.53 (4h), 0.80 (1d).
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h).
- Trade Alignment: The 1h z-score (4.19) strongly supports the Long PNUT / Short GOAT direction, suggesting the spread is currently stretched in favor of this mean-reversion trade. However, the 4h and 1d z-scores are near neutral, indicating the statistical edge is primarily short-term (1h).
- Risk Note: The 1h z-score is ~1.2 hours old. Given the high volatility of memecoins, verify current spot prices to ensure the 4.19 z-score hasn't already mean-reverted significantly since the last snapshot. The trade is high-risk due to the conflict between the short-term statistical signal and the bearish/bullish sentiment split.
PNUT
GOAT