Correlation: 0.69 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 0.47 entry / 2.23 rolling
Half-life 1.4h · Hurst 0.88 · Hedge ratio 0.96
Pair volatility: 28.44%
Backtest: 55.56% win · Sharpe 0.79 · 0.72% return · 2.22% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long YGG / Short ACE
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.49 (ACE is statistically rich relative to YGG on the 1h timeframe)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 0.25
- Roll Z-Score (1d): -3.05 (YGG is statistically rich relative to ACE on the 1d timeframe)
- Correlation: 0.69
- Half-Life (1h): 33h (~1.4d)
Sentiment & Context
- YGG: Bearish. The gaming guild thesis is under pressure following the shutdown of its publishing arm and staff cuts; the pivot to AI is currently viewed as a survival attempt rather than a growth catalyst.
- ACE: Bearish. Facing a significant supply cliff with ~39% of market cap unlocking over the next four months, which is expected to create persistent sell pressure that may outweigh organic demand.
Trade Note
This setup is a relative weakness bet between two assets with bearish sentiment. The signals are highly divergent across timeframes: the 1h z-score (2.49) supports your direction (Short ACE), while the 1d z-score (-3.05) suggests YGG is the "richer" asset, contradicting your long bias. Given the conflicting statistical signals and the heavy supply-side headwinds for ACE, this trade carries elevated risk of whipsaw.
YGG
ACE