Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.61 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.39 entry / -2.36 rolling
Half-life 1.5h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.41
Pair volatility: 46.64%
Backtest: 75.00% win · Sharpe 4.88 · 4.67% return · 1.58% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long DYM / Short SAGA
This setup is a statistical mean-reversion play on the spread, despite both assets currently facing significant fundamental headwinds.
Statistical Diagnostics
- Roll Z-Score: -2.36 (1h) | -1.67 (4h) | -0.92 (1d)
- Interpretation: The negative z-score indicates DYM is currently "cheap" relative to SAGA compared to their recent historical relationship. The 1h z-score of -2.36 suggests a significant divergence, making this a mean-reversion candidate.
- Correlation: 0.61 (1h/4h) — moderate correlation, suggesting the pair is not perfectly locked but moves with some shared beta.
- Hedge Weights (4h): 72.2% DYM / 27.8% SAGA.
Sentiment & Context
- DYM (Bearish): Sentiment is negative due to a prolonged communications blackout and persistent token dilution from linear vesting, which continues to weigh on price action.
- SAGA (Bearish): Sentiment is similarly negative, driven by liquidity concerns following the delisting of key pairs and a strategic pivot that has yet to yield clear utility or community engagement.
- Remark: This is a "race to the bottom" trade. You are not betting on the strength of DYM, but rather on the statistical probability that the spread between these two weak assets will contract. The trade relies on DYM's recent relative overselling (z-score -2.36) correcting back toward the mean, rather than a fundamental bullish thesis for either token.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots (1h age); verify recent price action to ensure the divergence hasn't been invalidated by a major intraday move.
DYM
SAGA