Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.65 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.24 entry / -1.58 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.93 · Hedge ratio 1.90
Pair volatility: 38.86%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe 0.67 · 0.73% return · 2.25% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: MSTR / PEOPLE
- Roll Z-Score: -1.58 (1h) | -0.43 (4h) | -1.28 (1d)
- Interpretation: The 1h z-score of -1.58 indicates MSTR is statistically "cheap" relative to PEOPLE. The pair shows cointegration on the 1h timeframe, supporting a mean-reversion setup.
- Correlation: 0.65 (Moderate)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 29.3% MSTR / 70.7% PEOPLE
- Note: Use these weights for sizing. 4h is the preferred timeframe for stability; 1d weights (43.1%/56.9%) are available if you prefer a more balanced exposure.
Sentiment & Context
- Divergence Alert: This trade presents a conflict between statistical signals and fundamental sentiment.
- Statistical: The negative z-score supports a "Long MSTR / Short PEOPLE" mean-reversion trade (buying the statistically cheap asset).
- Fundamental: Sentiment is currently bearish on MSTR (due to forced BTC sales) and bullish on PEOPLE (driven by community optimism).
- Risk: The fundamental sentiment is currently working against the statistical mean-reversion signal. Ensure your risk management accounts for the possibility of the spread widening further if the fundamental bearishness on MSTR persists.
Asset Availability
- MSTR: Tradeable on Hyperliquid (
xyz:MSTR), max 10x leverage.
- PEOPLE: Tradeable on Hyperliquid (
PEOPLE), max 3x leverage.
MSTR
PEOPLE