Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.65 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.82 entry / 1.57 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 3.16
Pair volatility: 42.30%
Backtest: 66.67% win · Sharpe -2.28 · -2.39% return · 3.87% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: STRK / MINA
- Roll Z-Score: 1.57 (1h) / 1.62 (4h) — The pair is statistically extended, with MINA currently rich relative to STRK.
- Correlation: 0.65 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 31.8% STRK / 68.2% MINA (sizing on 4h; 1d available).
- Sentiment:
- STRK: Bearish. Significant upcoming token unlocks (18.06% of market cap) are creating supply pressure and investor caution.
- MINA: Neutral. Low engagement and lack of major developments.
Remark
This setup is statistically attractive for a mean-reversion trade (Short MINA / Long STRK) given the elevated z-score, which suggests MINA has outperformed STRK beyond historical norms. However, the fundamental outlook is conflicting: while the stats favor the trade, the "Long STRK" leg faces significant headwinds from upcoming token unlocks. The bearish supply pressure on STRK may prevent it from mean-reverting upward as expected, potentially turning this into a "short MINA" trade with a weak long leg. Proceed with caution; the statistical edge is currently fighting a fundamental supply-side headwind.
STRK
MINA