Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
short spread · 5× leverage · regime STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Signal
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Rolling z-score | 1.69 |
| Z-score | 1.69 at entry · 1.25 pair |
| Correlation | 0.73 · cointegrated |
| Half-life | 0.8h |
| Hurst | 0.87 |
| Hedge ratio | 0.69 · long-term beta 0.67 |
| Beta stability | stable · current 0.69 · range -0.01–1.32 · 2 sign changes |
| Lead–lag peak corr | 0.73 |
| Pair volatility | 35.21% |
| Momentum | z-velocity +1.20 · acceleration +1.77 · vol ratio 0.21 |
Backtest
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Win rate | 76.47% — 13W / 4L over 17 trades |
| Sharpe | 2.23 |
| Total return | +1.03% |
| Max drawdown | 1.04% |
Pair Analysis: Long WDC / Short TER
- Roll Z-Score: 1.69 (1h) / 1.62 (4h)
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h) / 0.80 (4h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
- Hedge Ratio (4h): 0.653 (Sizing: ~39.5% WDC / ~60.5% TER)
- Half-Life: 6h (4h timeframe)
Analysis:
- Mean Reversion Setup: The pair is currently exhibiting a positive Z-score (1.69 on 1h), indicating that the spread (TER/WDC) is statistically extended. Your direction (Long WDC / Short TER) aligns with a mean-reversion strategy, betting that the spread will contract as TER mean-reverts relative to WDC.
- Technical Context: The 1h Z-score of 1.69 suggests the pair is stretched, though not at extreme divergence levels. The 4h half-life of ~6 hours indicates a relatively fast mean-reversion process, which is favorable for shorter-term tactical trades.
- Sentiment: No specific sentiment data is available for these assets at this time.
- Execution Note: WDC is listed on the
xyz deployer and TER is on the para deployer. Both settle in USDC, so they are compatible for a single-margin pair trade on Hyperliquid. Ensure you have sufficient USDC collateral available to cover both legs.
WDC
TER