Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.62 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.42 entry / 3.16 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.88 · Hedge ratio 0.38
Pair volatility: 39.98%
Backtest: 69.23% win · Sharpe 4.73 · 3.82% return · 0.80% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long DYM / Short AIXBT
- Roll Z-Score: 3.16 (1h) / 2.97 (4h)
- Correlation: 0.62 (1h) / 0.63 (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 40.9% DYM / 59.1% AIXBT
Analysis:
- Statistical Signal: The pair is currently showing a significant statistical divergence. The positive z-score indicates that AIXBT is "rich" relative to DYM, which supports your "Long DYM / Short AIXBT" mean-reversion trade.
- Sentiment Divergence: There is a sharp conflict between the statistical signal and fundamental sentiment.
- DYM: Sentiment is bearish, characterized by heavy linear vesting and low TVL.
- AIXBT: Sentiment is bullish, driven by strong momentum in the AI agent narrative and sector-wide inflows.
- Risk Note: While the statistical z-score suggests the spread is stretched, you are effectively betting on a mean reversion against a strong trend (Long weak DYM / Short strong AIXBT). This setup carries high risk, as the "rich" asset (AIXBT) may continue to outperform due to its bullish narrative, potentially keeping the spread extended rather than reverting.
DYM
AIXBT