Correlation: 0.62 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.00 entry / 1.80 rolling
Half-life 5.8h · Hurst 0.92 · Hedge ratio 0.47
Pair volatility: 35.31%
Backtest: 55.56% win · Sharpe -4.49 · -5.65% return · 6.39% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long TRUMP / Short ADA
- Roll Z-Score: 3.29 (1h) — Indicates ADA is statistically "rich" relative to TRUMP.
- Correlation: 0.62
- Half-Life: 138h (~5.8 days)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 31.7% TRUMP / 68.3% ADA
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Setup: This is a mean-reversion play betting that ADA's recent outperformance relative to TRUMP will correct. The 1h Roll Z-Score of 3.29 is a strong signal, suggesting the spread is significantly extended.
- Sentiment: Both assets are currently facing bearish headwinds. TRUMP is pressured by regulatory concerns (CLARITY Act) and supply overhang, while ADA is struggling with technical rejection and negative funding.
- Risk Note: Because both assets are bearish, this trade is essentially a "relative value" bet rather than a directional one. You are betting that TRUMP will outperform (or decline less than) ADA. The high half-life (~5.8 days) suggests this is a slower-moving mean reversion; ensure your sizing accounts for the potential duration of the trade.
TRUMP
ADA