Correlation: 0.76 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 0.95 entry / 2.13 rolling
Half-life 0.9h · Hurst 0.86 · Hedge ratio 0.30
Pair volatility: 29.05%
Backtest: 76.92% win · Sharpe 2.67 · 1.42% return · 0.95% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: RENDER / ICP
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.76 (ICP is rich relative to RENDER)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 2.59
- Correlation: 0.76
- Half-Life: 20h (1h TF) / 6h (4h TF)
- Hurst Exponent: 0.86 (1h) / 0.83 (4h) — indicates strong mean-reverting tendency.
Sentiment & Context
- RENDER (Bullish): Sentiment is driven by structural demand from the Salad subnet integration and RNP-023 governance approval. Whale accumulation is currently offsetting minor token unlocks.
- ICP (Bullish): Sentiment is supported by high network throughput and the "Mission 70" inflation reduction plan. Developer momentum is building around AI agents and Cloud Engines.
- Setup: This is a mean-reversion trade. The positive Z-score (2.76) indicates that ICP has outperformed RENDER significantly in the short term, creating a statistical divergence. The trade (Long RENDER / Short ICP) plays the convergence of this spread.
Trade Construction
- Direction: Long RENDER / Short ICP (Aligned with mean-reversion signal).
- Hedge Weights (4h): 23.6% RENDER / 76.4% ICP.
- Note: Both assets share bullish sentiment, which may dampen the speed of mean reversion. Monitor the 1h Z-score closely; if it continues to expand, the divergence may be driven by fundamental decoupling rather than temporary noise.
RENDER
ICP