Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.61 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.47 entry / 1.81 rolling
Half-life 5.5h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.51
Pair volatility: 45.28%
Backtest: 50.00% win · Sharpe -0.77 · -1.07% return · 2.82% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SUI / Short PYTH
This setup is statistically and fundamentally aligned. The pair is currently trading at a positive z-score, indicating that PYTH is rich relative to SUI, supporting a mean-reversion trade (Short PYTH / Long SUI).
Statistical Snapshot
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 1.81 (PYTH rich vs SUI)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: 2.82
- 1d Roll Z-Score: 1.64
- Correlation: 0.61 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 59.5% SUI / 40.5% PYTH (Use for sizing)
Sentiment & Context
- PYTH (Bearish): Sentiment is weighed down by a significant upcoming token unlock (approx. 26.98% of market cap), creating structural sell pressure that aligns with the rich z-score.
- SUI (Neutral): Sentiment is balanced; ecosystem growth is currently offsetting concerns regarding upcoming unlocks.
- Alignment: The trade direction (Long SUI / Short PYTH) is quant-optimal, as it bets on the convergence of the spread while capitalizing on the fundamental divergence caused by PYTH's supply overhang.
Execution Notes
- Availability: Both assets are tradeable on Hyperliquid (SUI: 10x max, PYTH: 5x max).
- Risk: The 4h z-score (2.82) is elevated, suggesting a strong mean-reversion signal, but ensure you are sizing based on the 4h hedge weights (59.5%/40.5%) to account for the volatility in the spread.
SUI
PYTH