Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.69 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -2.28 entry / -2.31 rolling
Half-life 1.0h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.97
Pair volatility: 32.79%
Backtest: 79.31% win · Sharpe 3.42 · 2.54% return · 0.96% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long GMT / Short SUPER
- Roll Z-Score: -2.31 (1h) | -1.97 (4h) | -1.16 (1d)
- Interpretation: GMT is statistically "cheap" relative to SUPER. The negative z-score indicates the spread is currently below its mean, supporting a mean-reversion trade (Long GMT / Short SUPER).
- Correlation: 0.69 (1h)
- Hedge Ratio: 1.08 (4h sizing weight)
- Sentiment:
- GMT: Bullish. Driven by a significant short squeeze, a 245% OI surge, and a $122M buyback program.
- SUPER: Bullish. Driven by whale accumulation and speculative momentum surrounding the Superseed migration.
- Setup Remark: This is a mean-reversion play where you are long the "cheaper" asset (GMT) against the "richer" asset (SUPER). While both assets have bullish sentiment, the statistical divergence (z-score -2.31) suggests GMT is currently lagging SUPER's price action. You are betting that GMT's fundamental catalysts (buyback/short squeeze) will drive it to outperform SUPER as the spread reverts to the mean. Note that both assets are currently experiencing high volatility; monitor the spread closely as the 1h z-score is ~1.3h old.
GMT
SUPER