Pair is still diverging, but the momentum is slowing. A potential reversal candidate.
Regime: PEAK_DIVERGENCE (medium confidence)
Correlation: 0.66 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.40 entry / -3.66 rolling
Half-life 0.6h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.09
Pair volatility: 37.57%
Backtest: 75.00% win · Sharpe 3.29 · 3.10% return · 0.92% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long AVNT / Short SUPER
This setup is a mean-reversion trade targeting the current spread divergence.
Statistical Diagnostics
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -3.66 (Strongly negative; indicates AVNT is statistically cheap relative to SUPER).
- Correlation: 0.66 (Moderate; suggests the pair maintains a relationship but has room for independent movement).
- Half-Life: 15h (1h timeframe); indicates a moderate speed of mean reversion.
- Hedge Weights (4h): 39.5% AVNT / 60.5% SUPER (Use these for sizing).
Sentiment & Context
- AVNT: Neutral sentiment; price action is currently driven by broader market consolidation with no significant independent catalysts.
- SUPER: Bullish sentiment; driven by speculative momentum, whale accumulation, and the Superseed migration catalyst.
- Trade Note: The negative Z-score (-3.66) supports your Long AVNT / Short SUPER direction, suggesting the spread is currently stretched. However, be aware that the bullish momentum behind SUPER (due to migration catalysts) may act as a headwind, potentially keeping the spread wider for longer than the statistical half-life suggests.
Execution Details
- Venue: Hyperliquid (Core).
- Max Leverage: AVNT (5x) / SUPER (3x).
- Note: The trade is currently aligned with the mean-reversion signal. Monitor the SUPER migration news closely, as strong idiosyncratic bullishness can override statistical mean reversion.
AVNT
SUPER