Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.66 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.72 entry / 4.18 rolling
Half-life 1.5h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 1.01
Pair volatility: 29.05%
Backtest: 70.37% win · Sharpe 1.60 · 1.32% return · 1.27% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 4.18 (High; indicates PEOPLE is currently rich relative to SUPER)
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 0.65
- Roll Z-Score (1d): 0.51
- Correlation: 0.66 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 47.3% SUPER / 52.7% PEOPLE
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Technical Context: The 1h z-score of 4.18 is significantly elevated, suggesting the spread has widened sharply in the short term. This aligns with a mean-reversion setup favoring a Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE position. However, the 4h and 1d z-scores are near neutral, indicating this is a short-term divergence rather than a long-term structural extreme.
- Sentiment Context: Sentiment is currently divergent. PEOPLE is seeing bullish momentum driven by retail memecoin speculation, while SUPER faces a more neutral outlook with potential supply-side headwinds.
- Trade Note: The trade is currently aligned with the 1h mean-reversion signal. Given the bullish sentiment surrounding PEOPLE, be cautious of the "memecoin premium" sustaining the spread longer than standard mean-reversion models might predict.
Assets are available on Hyperliquid (Max Leverage: 3x).
SUPER
PEOPLE