Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.33 entry / -2.12 rolling
Half-life 2.8h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.67
Pair volatility: 31.57%
Backtest: 55.00% win · Sharpe 0.33 · 0.21% return · 1.49% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long MOODENG / Short POLYX
- Roll Z-Score: -2.12 (1h snapshot, 1.3h old)
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 40.7% MOODENG / 59.3% POLYX
- Sentiment: Bullish (MOODENG) vs. Bearish (POLYX)
Analysis:
- Statistical Setup: The 1h Roll Z-Score of -2.12 indicates the spread is significantly below its mean, suggesting MOODENG is currently "cheap" relative to POLYX. This aligns with a mean-reversion entry for a Long MOODENG / Short POLYX position.
- Sentiment Divergence: The trade is supported by a clear sentiment divergence. MOODENG is seeing renewed speculative interest and a 136% surge in 24-hour volume, while POLYX is struggling near range lows with declining open interest and weak liquidity.
- Note: The 1h z-score is a snapshot; verify recent price action to ensure the spread hasn't already mean-reverted significantly since the last update. The 4h hedge weights (40.7% / 59.3%) are recommended for sizing.
MOODENG
POLYX