Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.81 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.36 entry / 1.96 rolling
Half-life 1.7h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 1.16
Pair volatility: 29.16%
Backtest: 47.06% win · Sharpe 0.02 · 0.00% return · 1.19% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long STX / Short APT
- Roll Z-Score: 1.96 (1h) / 0.96 (4h) / 0.54 (1d)
- Note: Positive z-scores indicate APT is currently "rich" relative to STX. The 1h z-score of 1.96 suggests a statistically significant divergence, supporting the mean-reversion trade (Long STX / Short APT).
- Correlation: 0.81 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h/4h)
- Half-Life: 11h (4h timeframe)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 55.0% STX / 45.0% APT
Sentiment & Technical Context
- STX (Bearish): Technicals show a failed volume-spike breakout, indicating underlying weakness despite community-held bullish sentiment.
- APT (Bearish): Facing immediate supply pressure from a 11.31M token unlock. Rising open interest on thin volume suggests a fragile, leverage-driven position that may be vulnerable to liquidation if the unlock triggers selling.
- Trade Rationale: While both assets are bearish, the APT unlock acts as a specific fundamental catalyst that may accelerate its relative underperformance against STX. The trade is statistically aligned (selling the rich asset, buying the relatively cheaper one) and benefits from the divergence in fundamental pressure.
Disclaimer: Z-scores are snapshots; verify current price action as the 1h z-score is ~1.3h old.
STX
APT