Long DOT / Short SUPER · 1h pair

Correlation: 0.69 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.05 entry / -1.82 rolling
Half-life 0.7h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 1.12
Pair volatility: 27.70%

Backtest: 55.00% win · Sharpe 0.31 · 0.18% return · 1.47% max drawdown

Pair Analysis: Long DOT / Short SUPER

This setup presents a classic statistical mean-reversion opportunity that is currently diverging from fundamental sentiment.

• Statistical Signal (Mean Reversion):

  • 1h Roll Z-Score: -2.39 (Strongly "cheap" DOT relative to SUPER).
  • 4h Roll Z-Score: -1.84.
  • 1d Roll Z-Score: -0.87.
  • The negative z-scores indicate that the spread has widened significantly, with DOT underperforming SUPER relative to their historical relationship. Statistically, this is a "buy the dip" signal on the spread.

• Sentiment & Fundamental Context:

  • DOT (Bearish): Sentiment is weighed down by recent exploit concerns and a lack of spot buying conviction, making it fundamentally vulnerable despite the statistical "cheapness."
  • SUPER (Bullish): Sentiment is supported by institutional narratives and structural growth, which may keep the asset "rich" relative to DOT for longer than a purely statistical model expects.

• Trade Note:

  • Divergence Warning: You are trading a statistical mean-reversion signal (Long DOT / Short SUPER) against a hostile sentiment backdrop. While the z-score of -2.39 suggests the spread is stretched, the fundamental divergence implies that the "cheap" asset (DOT) may remain cheap or continue to underperform if the sentiment-driven selling persists.
  • Hedge Weights (4h): 59.5% DOT / 40.5% SUPER.

• Venue Status:

  • DOT: Listed on Hyperliquid (Core), max 10x leverage.
  • SUPER: Listed on Hyperliquid (Core), max 3x leverage.