Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.81 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.21 entry / 2.08 rolling
Half-life 2.7h · Hurst 0.89 · Hedge ratio 0.63
Pair volatility: 25.39%
Backtest: 47.06% win · Sharpe -2.38 · -1.06% return · 1.88% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SUI / Short BTC
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.08 (The spread is statistically extended; BTC is currently rich relative to SUI).
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 1.95
- Correlation: 0.81 (1h)
- Cointegration: True (1h, 4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 38.7% SUI / 61.3% BTC
Analysis & Sentiment:
- Directional Alignment: Your chosen direction (Long SUI / Short BTC) aligns with the quant-optimal direction derived from the current Z-score extension.
- Technical Context: The 1h Z-score of 2.08 indicates a significant divergence where BTC has outperformed SUI relative to their historical mean. The cointegration on the 1h and 4h timeframes supports a mean-reversion thesis, suggesting the spread is currently stretched and potentially primed to contract.
- Sentiment: Both assets carry bullish sentiment, but the narratives differ. SUI is benefiting from specific institutional demand and supply-side constraints (treasury staking), which may provide the relative strength needed to close the gap against BTC. BTC remains structurally bullish due to whale accumulation, but the current Z-score suggests it is temporarily overextended against the SUI pair.
Note: Z-scores are snapshots (1h age). Verify current price action, as significant intraday moves can impact the validity of these statistical levels.
SUI
BTC