Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.77 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: -1.41 entry / -4.17 rolling
Half-life 1.3h · Hurst 0.86 · Hedge ratio 1.29
Pair volatility: 28.50%
Backtest: 86.21% win · Sharpe 4.19 · 2.70% return · 1.19% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long MOODENG / Short TURBO
This setup is a mean-reversion play capitalizing on a significant short-term divergence where MOODENG has become statistically "cheap" relative to TURBO.
- Roll Z-Score (1h): -4.17
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -3.29
- Correlation: 0.74 (4h)
- Hedge Weights (4h): 44.6% MOODENG / 55.4% TURBO
- Half-Life (4h): 9 hours
Analysis:
- Statistical Divergence: The 1h and 4h z-scores are deeply negative (-4.17 and -3.29), indicating that MOODENG has significantly underperformed TURBO in the immediate term. This is a strong signal for a mean-reversion trade (Long MOODENG / Short TURBO) as the spread is stretched well beyond its typical range.
- Sentiment Context: Both assets are currently facing bearish sentiment. MOODENG is suffering from fragmented attention and momentum-driven volatility, while TURBO is underperforming with fading speculative interest. In this context, the trade is less about a fundamental "bullish" thesis for MOODENG and more about exploiting the relative price dislocation between two struggling meme assets.
- Risk Note: The 1d z-score (0.54) is neutral, suggesting that while the short-term divergence is extreme, the long-term relationship is closer to equilibrium. Ensure tight risk management, as the trade relies on the short-term mean reversion (half-life of ~9 hours on the 4h timeframe) rather than a structural trend reversal.
Note: Both assets are available on Hyperliquid (Core/USDC) with a max leverage of 3x.
MOODENG
TURBO