Correlation: 0.74 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.16 entry / 2.21 rolling
Half-life 1.2h · Hurst 0.86 · Hedge ratio 0.88
Pair volatility: 34.00%
Backtest: 73.91% win · Sharpe 2.61 · 1.61% return · 0.94% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long RENDER / Short ICP
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 2.62 (ICP is statistically rich relative to RENDER; mean-reversion favors selling ICP and buying RENDER).
- Roll Z-Score (4h): 0.61
- Correlation: 0.74
- Half-Life: 28h (1h timeframe)
- Hedge Ratio: 0.85 (4h)
Sentiment & Context
- RENDER (Bullish): Sentiment is supported by the RNP-023 governance passing, which aims to onboard ~60K GPUs. This creates a structural supply-sink catalyst, with fully unlocked tokens and a deflationary burn model providing fundamental support.
- ICP (Bearish): Sentiment is bearish due to persistent selling pressure and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite ongoing ecosystem developments.
Setup Remark
This setup is a high-conviction mean-reversion trade. The 1h z-score of 2.62 indicates a significant divergence where ICP has become overextended relative to RENDER. The trade is fundamentally aligned with current sentiment, as RENDER benefits from a clear supply-side catalyst while ICP faces continued selling pressure. The 4h hedge ratio of 0.85 suggests a relatively stable relationship, though the 28h half-life implies a multi-day horizon for the spread to normalize.
RENDER
ICP