Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.73 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 3.39 entry / 7.99 rolling
Half-life 1.0h · Hurst 0.82 · Hedge ratio 0.82
Pair volatility: 35.46%
Backtest: 68.75% win · Sharpe 0.58 · 0.16% return · 1.04% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: WDC / TER
- Direction: Long WDC / Short TER
- 1h Roll Z-Score: 7.99 (Strong divergence; TER is significantly rich relative to WDC)
- 4h Roll Z-Score: -0.21 (Neutral; longer-term relationship remains stable)
- Correlation: 0.73 (1h) / 0.84 (4h)
- Half-Life: 23h (1h) / 6h (4h)
Analysis:
- Divergence: The 1h z-score of 7.99 indicates a sharp, short-term dislocation where TER has outperformed WDC relative to their historical spread. This setup is a classic mean-reversion play, betting that the spread will contract as TER cools off or WDC catches up.
- Timeframe Discrepancy: The 1h and 4h z-scores are significantly misaligned (7.99 vs -0.21). This suggests the current "richness" of TER is a very recent, potentially volatile event rather than a structural breakdown of the pair.
- Execution Note: WDC is listed on the
xyz deployer and TER on the para deployer. These are separate collateral pools; ensure you have sufficient USDC collateral on both deployers to support the position, as they are not cross-margined by default.
- Sentiment: No specific sentiment data is available for these assets at this time.
WDC
TER