Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
Regime: STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Correlation: 0.74 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 1.41 entry / 3.32 rolling
Half-life 1.8h · Hurst 0.90 · Hedge ratio 0.51
Pair volatility: 28.65%
Backtest: 77.78% win · Sharpe 3.71 · 2.82% return · 1.06% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE
This setup is currently the #1 active signal on Hyperliquid, supported by strong fundamental divergence and statistical mean-reversion potential.
- Roll Z-Score: 3.32 (1h) / 2.68 (4h)
- Interpretation: The positive Z-score indicates that PEOPLE is statistically "rich" relative to SUPER. The trade (Long SUPER / Short PEOPLE) is a direct mean-reversion play betting on this spread compressing.
- Correlation: 0.74 (1h)
- Half-Life: 42h (1h) / 13h (4h) — indicates a moderate-term mean-reversion window.
- Sentiment:
- SUPER (Bullish): Supported by institutional momentum, specifically the $967M USTB fund and its growing utility as collateral on Solana protocols.
- PEOPLE (Bearish): Lacks recent positive catalysts or fundamental drivers, making it a weak leg in this pair.
Note: The 1h and 4h Z-scores are highly elevated, confirming the statistical richness of the short leg (PEOPLE). The 1d Z-score is neutral (-0.05), suggesting this is a short-to-medium-term tactical trade rather than a long-term structural divergence.
SUPER
PEOPLE