Pair is strongly reverting towards the mean with accelerating velocity and stable volatility.
Regime: STRONG_REVERSION (high confidence)
Correlation: 0.84 · Cointegrated: yes
Z-score: 2.43 entry / 3.42 rolling
Half-life 0.5h · Hurst 0.91 · Hedge ratio 1.23
Pair volatility: 25.37%
Backtest: 62.50% win · Sharpe 3.32 · 0.42% return · 0.50% max drawdown
Pair Analysis: Long LRCX / Short AMAT
- Status: Both assets are tradeable on Hyperliquid (LRCX via
para, AMAT via xyz).
- Roll Z-Score (1h): 3.42 (Indicates the spread is significantly extended; AMAT is currently rich relative to LRCX on the 1h timeframe).
- Roll Z-Score (4h): -0.01 (Neutral; suggests the 1h extension is a short-term deviation from the longer-term mean).
- Correlation: 0.84 (1h) / 0.88 (4h).
- Hedge Weights (4h): 49.2% LRCX / 50.8% AMAT.
Remark:
The 1h z-score of 3.42 signals a strong mean-reversion opportunity, as the spread has diverged significantly in the short term. However, the 4h z-score is near zero, indicating that this divergence is a recent intraday move rather than a long-term trend break. The high correlation (0.84–0.88) supports the pair's stability. No specific sentiment data is available for these semiconductor equipment stocks at this time; monitor sector-wide news (e.g., WFE spending forecasts, export controls) as these are primary drivers for both assets.
LRCX
AMAT