Pair is strongly diverging away from the mean. High risk of further deviation.
long spread · 5× leverage · regime STRONG_DIVERGENCE (low confidence)
Signal
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Rolling z-score | -1.69 |
| Z-score | -1.74 at entry |
| Correlation | 0.71 · cointegrated |
| Half-life | 0.8h |
| Hurst | 0.88 |
| Hedge ratio | 0.46 · long-term beta 0.56 |
| Beta stability | stable · current 0.46 · range 0.01–1.07 · 0 sign changes |
| Lead–lag peak corr | 0.71 |
| Pair volatility | 38.83% |
| Momentum | z-velocity -1.01 · acceleration -0.20 · vol ratio 0.51 |
Backtest
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Win rate | 87.10% — 27W / 4L over 31 trades |
| Sharpe | 5.33 |
| Total return | +3.23% |
| Max drawdown | 0.81% |
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Pair: Long EWY / Short MRVL
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Venue: Hyperliquid xyz:EWY / xyz:MRVL; both USDC-collateralized
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Tradeability: EWY max 20×; MRVL max 10×
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Roll Z-Score:
- 1h: -1.69; age 1.3h
- 4h: -1.10; age 7.3h
- 1d: -1.00; age 1.6d
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Correlation: 0.71 (1h), 0.75 (4h), 0.67 (1d)
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Cointegration: True on 1h/4h; false on 1d
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Hurst: 0.88 (1h), 0.84 (4h), 0.50 (1d)
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Half-life: 20h (1h), 5h (4h), 13h (1d)
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4h hedge weights: 67.5% EWY long / 32.5% MRVL short
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1d hedge weights: 69.8% / 30.2%
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Remark: Statistically supported short-term mean-reversion setup, with negative z-scores and 1h/4h cointegration, but conviction is tempered by high Hurst readings and failed 1d cointegration.
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Sentiment/news: No usable sentiment classification or recent-news tone returned for either asset.
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Technical caveat: No independent price/TA indicators were available; z-scores are snapshots, not live-tick readings.
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Direction note: The requested Long EWY / Short MRVL direction is preserved; the stats response flags it as against its generic z-sign heuristic.
EWY
MRVL